The inclusion of the Rohingya is necessary if the United League of Arakan is to gain international legitimacy.
By Zaw Win in The Diplomat
On December 28, Myanmar will hold the first phase of “national elections” that will be neither truly national nor genuine in any way. Organized by the brutal Myanmar military junta – now ironically styling itself as the State Security and Peace Commission – these “elections” are pure political theater staged entirely to solidify and “legitimize” the military’s existing political and economic control.
On the ground, in resistance-held territory throughout the country, however, genuine democratic processes have been built. In Karenni (Kayah) State, for example, the Interim Executive Council (IEC) brings together political leaders, civil society, youth, and women’s groups alongside armed resistance actors. It prioritizes civilian representation and service delivery over military-style control. Despite operating under intense conflict, the IEC has begun coordinating education, health, and local administration while outlining a path towards a Karenni State constitution and a future within a federal democratic union.
At a national level, the path toward a federal democratic future in Myanmar is being guided by the National Unity Government (NUG). This body, comprising elected representatives and civil society leaders, has taken decisive steps to shape a vision for Myanmar’s democratic future, including the inclusion of ethnic and religious minorities, such as the Rohingya, in national life and politics.
The NUG has, for example, appointed Aung Kyaw Moe, a prominent Rohingya human rights defender, as a deputy minister, and has outlined a commendable stance on the future of the Rohingya community within Myanmar in an official position paper. However, there remains much to be done for the NUG’s governance to be genuinely inclusive of all ethnic and religious communities, and its continued silence on the atrocities unfolding in Rakhine State is speaking volumes.
Rakhine State, also known as Arakan State, in Myanmar’s northwest, is the ancestral home of the Rohingya – the state’s second largest community after the ethnic Rakhine. Rakhine is currently at a pivotal junction in its history. Thanks to its significant battlefield gains against the junta, the NUG’s powerful ethnic Rakhine ally, the Arakan Army (AA), and its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), have essentially assumed governance of the majority of the state and are drawing up a new political framework for its administration.
While the ouster of the Myanmar military junta, which is the primary perpetrator of the Rohingya genocide in 2017, might seem a positive development for the Rohingya, in reality, it has resulted in atrocities reminiscent of those my organization and others documented at the height of the genocide against the Rohingya. The AA/ULA publicly has committed to upholding Rohingya rights and dignity, and firmly denies any involvement in the atrocities it has been accused of, including the detention, torture, and killing of Rohingya civilians.
Despite this tragic situation, there’s still time for the cycle of violence that has engulfed Rakhine for so long to be brought to a close. Twan Mrat Naing, the ULA/AA chief, must demonstrate political leadership by committing to eliminating the deep enmity and discrimination against Rohingya within the Rakhine community, and should genuinely engage in a process to bring sustainable peace and federal democracy to Rakhine State.
While the AA/ULA retains the reins of power in Rakhine, one fact is undeniably clear: the Rohingya can no longer be marginalized. The inclusion of the Rohingya is strategically necessary to achieve legitimacy for the AA/ULA administration and for peace in Rakhine State as a whole.
Peace in Rakhine State also means that Rohingya armed groups – specifically, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the Rohingya Solidarity Organization – must make peace with the AA/ULA, and that all armed groups must end abuses against civilians, including refugees. Instead of allying themselves with the Myanmar junta responsible for the Rohingya genocide of 2017, the Rohingya community must realize that its future lies within a federal democratic Myanmar.
Over the years, I have talked with hundreds of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh about their aspiration to one day return to their homeland. Almost everyone expressed their desire to return to Rakhine State as soon as possible, but on a straightforward condition: that their rights be restored, so they can finally live in peace and security. The success of the AA/ULA’s governance project, as judged at both local and international levels, rests on its ability to translate inclusive rhetoric into sustained policies that guarantee the rights and political participation of the Rohingya.
The same is true for the NUG, which, despite making initial steps in the right direction, has stalled in the implementation of its commitments toward the Rohingya community. If the NUG, as it says it does, truly believes in equality for all in Myanmar, it must formally accept the Rohingyas’ place and equity within Myanmar’s political future.
In practice, this means ensuring Rohingya representatives have a voice in political dialogue, constitutional drafting, and federal decision-making structures. The NUG’s stated dedication to human rights and democratic governance must translate into policies that grant equal citizenship, provide legal protections, and prevent and punish future atrocity crimes. Similarly, the AA/ULA must recognize that genuine self-determination for Rakhine State depends on a vision of coexistence rooted in dignity and mutual respect.
Finally, the NUG and state-level governments must call out the AA’s crimes against Rohingya civilians, and the AA/ULA must hold all those responsible for these atrocities to account.
What is clear is that it won’t be the junta’s phony elections that determine Myanmar’s democratic future, but rather the steps the NUG and its ally, the AA/ULA, decide to take next. Both bodies’ commitment to inclusivity and equality will be measured by their willingness to formally include the Rohingya community in the ongoing federal democracy process. They must not let this opportunity slip away.
This article was originally published in The Diplomat.